What-if Analysis

What if…

  • the inspection interval is increased?
  • we no longer conduct this preventive maintenance?
  • a redundant pump is installed?
  • the storage tank is taken out of service?
  • the new storage tank volume is 6 kt instead of the planned 9 kt?
  • raw materials are delivered in 5 kt ships?
  • a debottlenecking/improvement project is implemented?
  • the unit turnaround interval is extended from 3 years to 5 years?
  • the mothballed unit is re-started?
  • a new inspection technology is introduced?
  • spare part delivery times increase?
  • 2 failures in 2 years is not just bad luck?

The impact of a given scenario on the overall performance of the production system is not always obvious. The What-if Analysis enables scenarios (hypothetical or real) to be quantified on the basis of agreed data. This removes “emotion” from the equation and creates a transparent and quantified basis for decision-making.

The figure below shows the impact of four redundancy configurations upon the overall system performance, measured in terms of lost production costs and maintenance costs. The simulation results enable the business case for each configuration to be calculated, thereby ensuring the best use of company resources.

Exploring the impact of several “What-if” scenarios on the overall system performance.